Temperature Update - November 2017, RSS

As with UAH, the Remote Sensing System satellite lower troposphere data shows a big drop in the anomaly from October to November.

Details

The anomaly for November was 0.549°C compared to 0.805°C in October (anomalies relative to the years 1979 - 1998). This still makes this November the third warmest November, with the last three Novembers being the warmest three in the data - with all three being over 0.1°C warmer than the previous warmest November.

The cumulative average for the year dropped slightly, from 0.646°C to 0.637°C.

Here is the updated 12 month rolling average.

Predictions

My prediction for 2017 is unchanged from that for October, but with more confidence. The expected average for 2017 is 0.624 ± 0.028°C, compared with last months prediction of 0.624 ± 0.043°C.

Baring a major catastrophe it seems certain RSS will have its second warmest year on record, the warmest being last year.

RSS 4.0

Rank	Year	Anomaly	Probability	Change
1	2016	0.74	0.00%	-0.00%
2	1998	0.58	99.86%	+2.16%
3	2010	0.57	0.13%	-1.58%
4	2015	0.54	0.01%	-0.56%
5	2005	0.43	0.00%	-0.03%

My statistics suggest there is less than a 1 in 700 chance of RSS not finishing 2nd. But this would require December to have a negative anomaly (around -0.041°C). The last time December was this cold was 1995. There have only been 3 months during the 21st century this cold.