Temperature Update - April 2018, GISTEMP

Quick update, as I'm pressed for time and have a few more interesting post in the works.

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies have released the update for their GISTEMP data set. April 2018 was 0.86°C above the 1951-1980 base period. Only slightly down on last month's 0.88°C. This makes 2018 the 3rd warmest April in the data set, with the last 3 years being the three warmest Aprils on record.

This continues the general theme of temperatures being very close to the linear trend since 1970.

The average for the first 4 months of 2018 is 0.823°C.

Prediction

My statistical prediction for 2018 is now 0.801 ± 0.106°C. This is slightly up on the prediction based on last month's prediction of 0.792 ± 0.116°C.

The confidence that GISTEMP will finish in that big gap between 2014 and 2015 continues to grow, with an estimated 77% chance of 2018 being the 4th warmest. It's very unlikely that it will finish below 7th place or that it will be the warmest, but there's still a rather improbable 5% chance of finishing 2nd.

GISTEMP Probabilities of Ranking for 2018

Rank	Year	Anomaly	Probability	Cumulative
1	2016	0.98	0.07%	0.07%
2	2017	0.89	5.38%	5.45%
3	2015	0.86	9.12%	14.57%
4	2014	0.73	77.12%	91.70%
5	2010	0.69	5.93%	97.63%
6	2005	0.66	1.78%	99.41%
7	2013	0.64	0.43%	99.83%
8	2007	0.63	0.04%	99.87%
9	2009	0.63	0.01%	99.88%
10	1998	0.62	0.06%	99.94%
11	2002	0.62	0.01%	99.95%
12	2006	0.61	0.02%	99.96%
14	2003	0.6	0.01%	99.97%
15	2011	0.57	0.02%	100.00%