A late and cut down update for the two satellite data sets.
Neither set was that interesting, both had a slightly higher anomaly than September, but both well down on last year's record October values. October for UAH was 0.22°C, the equal 9th warmest October, RSS was 0.53°C, the 5th warmest. (Remember these anomalies use different base periods.)
The predictions for both data sets are both very slightly down from last month's prediction, about 1 hundredth of a degree down. 2018 for UAH is predicted to finish at 0.224 ± 0.042°C, compared with last months prediction of 0.234 ± 0.059°C.
RSS is now 0.51 ± 0.042°C, compared with 0.518 ± 0.059°C.
As before RSS is almost certain to be the 6th warmest year, with probability now estimated at 99.5%.
UAH remains on a knife edge, almost a 2 in 3 chance of finishing 6th, and 1 in 3 of finishing 7th or possibly 8th.
| Rank | Year | Anomaly | Probability | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 0.52 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 2 | 1998 | 0.48 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 4 | 2010 | 0.34 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 5 | 2015 | 0.27 | 1.66% | 1.66% |
| 6 | 2002 | 0.22 | 62.73% | 64.39% |
| 7 | 2005 | 0.2 | 24.59% | 88.98% |
| 8 | 2003 | 0.19 | 7.04% | 96.02% |
| 9 | 2014 | 0.18 | 1.56% | 97.58% |
| 10 | 2007 | 0.16 | 2.24% | 99.82% |
| 11 | 2013 | 0.14 | 0.16% | 99.98% |
| 12 | 2001 | 0.12 | 0.02% | 100.00% |
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