Temperature Update - November 2018, RSS

Data

According to the RSS Satellite data, November was 0.530°C warmer than the 1979 - 1998 average. This is slightly cooler than last month's anomaly, by less than a hundredth of a degree. It was the 4th coolest November since satellite records began, with the last 4 Novembers being the 4 warmest on record.

The anomaly for November was slightly below the trend for all months since 1979, of 1.96°C / century.

Predictions

Not surprisingly given how late we are into the year, there is little change in the prediction for the year which now stands at 0.507 ± 0.027°C, compared with last months prediction of 0.505 ± 0.042°C. This is slightly lower than the average for the year so far at 0.511°C.

According to my probability model it's now certain that in the RSS data set 208 will be the 6th warmest on record, with the most recent 4 years being in the top 6 warmest.

In reality, December would have to be around -0.28°C for 2018 to drop below 6th place. That is December would have to be colder than any month since 1993. Conversely, to beat 2015 for 5th place will require an anomaly of 1.20°C, which would be the warmest monthly anomaly, slightly warmer than the warmest month anomaly during the El Niño of 2016.

RSS 4.0

Rank	Year	Anomaly	Probability	Cumulative
1	2016	0.76	0.00%	0.00%
2	2017	0.65	0.00%	0.00%
3	2010	0.6	0.00%	0.00%
4	1998	0.58	0.00%	0.00%
5	2015	0.57	0.00%	0.00%
6	2005	0.44	99.99%	100.00%
7	2014	0.44	0.00%	100.00%