Temperature Update - May 2018, HadCRUT

The Met Office Hadley Centre, HadCRUT, data set has the anomaly for May 2018 at 0.596°C above the 1961-1990 base period. This makes 2018 the 5th warmest May in the data set, with the last 5 Mays being the 5 warmest, (although there's very little difference between 2018 and the 6th warmest in 2010).

Anomalies for months of May (relative to 1961 - 1990 average) - HadCRUT 4

May continues the story of 2018 being slightly below the trend from 1970.

Monthly Anomalies for HadCRUT4, with 12 Month Moving Average and Trend since 1970

The average for the first 5 months of 2018 is 0.585°C, up slightly from the first 4 months of 0.582°C. My prediction based on a simple statistical analysis is that 2018 will have an average anomaly of 0.612 ± 0.106°C. This is almost unchanged from the previous prediction from data up to April of 0.613 ± 0.115°C.

It is most likely (~60%) that HadCRUT will finishing as the 4th warmest year on record, with a greater than 80% chance of finishing between 3rd and 5th. However, it is unlikely to be above 3rd place, ans there is a reasonable chance of finishing below 5th, in which case it could be much lower, with a small chance of being below 13th.

HadCRUT4

Rank	Year	Anomaly	Probability	Cumulative
1	2016	0.8	0.05%	0.05%
2	2015	0.76	0.24%	0.28%
3	2017	0.68	10.35%	10.63%
4	2014	0.58	62.04%	72.67%
5	2010	0.56	10.77%	83.45%
6	2005	0.55	5.77%	89.22%
7	1998	0.54	1.96%	91.18%
8	2013	0.51	5.28%	96.46%
9	2003	0.51	0.91%	97.37%
10	2006	0.51	0.19%	97.56%
11	2009	0.51	0.06%	97.62%
12	2002	0.5	0.67%	98.28%
13	2007	0.49	0.39%	98.67%
14	2012	0.47	0.83%	99.50%
15	2004	0.45	0.34%	99.84%
16	2001	0.44	0.04%	99.89%
17	2011	0.42	0.07%	99.96%
18	2008	0.4	0.04%	99.99%
20	1995	0.33	0.01%	100.00%