Friday 15 July 2016

Referendum 3 - On the Brink of Brexit?

Yet another post about Brexit, in which I continue to whine about the unfairness of democracy, and swing between despair and cautious optimism.

So, we now have a new PM who got the job essentially by default, despite being the only one who was campaigning for the UK to remain in the EU. As you may have noticed, I'm one of the 48% who want to remain in the EU, so you might think there is some advantage to having a PM who claims to have wanted to remain, and who has said leaving would not be in the national interest.

But I fear the reality of the political situation is that it would have been easier for a Leaver to back out than for a Remainer. A Leaver, assuming they didn't really want to leave, could announce that after a lengthy consultation process they'd regretfully come to the conclusion that whilst they still had ideological objections to the EU, the current circumstances meant that the decision should be delayed until they could get a better deal, etc, etc.

If Theresa May wanted to do that, it will be painted as suspicious, that she never really wanted to leave, and had only said that Brexit means Brexit to win the leadership contest. Moreover, the fact that she's now created the post of Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, might suggest she is not keeping an open mind and the question has already been answered.

Yet, and this is me clutching at whatever tiny straw a can, I do wonder if this might be a crafty maneuver to seem to be appeasing the quitters, whilst giving them enough rope. If in the next few months David Davis, one of the staunchest Euro-skeptics, cannot come up with a realistic plan, it could be just the excuse needed to delay any decision for foreseeable future, or reach some sort of compromise.

For some context here's a detailed article looking at the challenges the Brexit commissioner will face. It suggests the best (that is least worse) solution would be to delay things until 2020 using an interim agreement.

An even more optimistic sign is that, as I'm writing this, it's being reported that May has had a constructive meeting with Scotland's First Minister First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, and is saying Article 50 won't be triggered until she has a UK approach. This really begins to seem that she is trying to put the pressure on Davis - not only does he have to find a plan for leaving the EU, but it has to satisfy Scotland and Northern Ireland.

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