Temperature Update - May 2018, HadCRUT

The Met Office Hadley Centre, HadCRUT, data set has the anomaly for May 2018 at 0.596°C above the 1961-1990 base period. This makes 2018 the 5th warmest May in the data set, with the last 5 Mays being the 5 warmest, (although there's very little difference between 2018 and the 6th warmest in 2010).

Anomalies for months of May (relative to 1961 - 1990 average) - HadCRUT 4

May continues the story of 2018 being slightly below the trend from 1970.

Monthly Anomalies for HadCRUT4, with 12 Month Moving Average and Trend since 1970

The average for the first 5 months of 2018 is 0.585°C, up slightly from the first 4 months of 0.582°C. My prediction based on a simple statistical analysis is that 2018 will have an average anomaly of 0.612 ± 0.106°C. This is almost unchanged from the previous prediction from data up to April of 0.613 ± 0.115°C.

It is most likely (~60%) that HadCRUT will finishing as the 4th warmest year on record, with a greater than 80% chance of finishing between 3rd and 5th. However, it is unlikely to be above 3rd place, ans there is a reasonable chance of finishing below 5th, in which case it could be much lower, with a small chance of being below 13th.

HadCRUT4

Rank	Year	Anomaly	Probability	Cumulative
1	2016	0.8	0.05%	0.05%
2	2015	0.76	0.24%	0.28%
3	2017	0.68	10.35%	10.63%
4	2014	0.58	62.04%	72.67%
5	2010	0.56	10.77%	83.45%
6	2005	0.55	5.77%	89.22%
7	1998	0.54	1.96%	91.18%
8	2013	0.51	5.28%	96.46%
9	2003	0.51	0.91%	97.37%
10	2006	0.51	0.19%	97.56%
11	2009	0.51	0.06%	97.62%
12	2002	0.5	0.67%	98.28%
13	2007	0.49	0.39%	98.67%
14	2012	0.47	0.83%	99.50%
15	2004	0.45	0.34%	99.84%
16	2001	0.44	0.04%	99.89%
17	2011	0.42	0.07%	99.96%
18	2008	0.4	0.04%	99.99%
20	1995	0.33	0.01%	100.00%

A Hurricane Waning from Piers Corbyn

I should have mentioned this earlier, but people of New Orleans are in grave danger. Piers Corbyn the alternative weather forcaster who claims to be able to predict the weather months in advance with proven skill verified by independent academic statisticians and published in scientific literature, has a message on his website, archived here warning of a hurricane that will hit near New Orleans.

WeatherAction* Public Hurricane Warning for likely Cat2 hit on Usa Gulf coast likely near NewOrleans about Jun29 +-1 day or so. Pass it on - WARN any contacts you know in Usa

*This warning is in line with WeatherAction policy to make LongRange Forecasts public when dangerous weather is likely.

I realize I might have left this a little late to pass on the warning, it already being the 29th, and with no forecast of any event from the official sources (or charlatans as Piers would have it).