According to the RSS Satellite data, November was 0.530°C warmer than the 1979 - 1998 average. This is slightly cooler than last month's anomaly, by less than a hundredth of a degree. It was the 4th coolest November since satellite records began, with the last 4 Novembers being the 4 warmest on record.
According to the Met Office and Haley Centre global temperature analysis, HadCRUT, October 2018 was 0.687°C above the average for 1961-1990. This makes October the warmest anomaly of the year, and the 2nd warmest October on record.
According to GISTEMP, global temperatures for October 2018 were 0.99°C above the 1951-1980 average. This is quite some rise, though you shouldn't put too much store in any individual month. It's up by 0.25°C from last months anomaly and is the warmest monthly anomaly of the year. It puts 2018 as the 2nd warmest October in the GISTEMP history, starting in 1880.
A late and cut down update for the two satellite data sets.
Neither set was that interesting, both had a slightly higher anomaly than September, but both well down on last year's record October values. October for UAH was 0.22°C, the equal 9th warmest October, RSS was 0.53°C, the 5th warmest. (Remember these anomalies use different base periods.)
According to the Met Office Hadley Centre data set (HadCRUT, September 2018 was 0.596°C above the 1961-1990 average. This is virtually the same as the anomaly for the last two months. In fact the last three months have been within 0.005°C of each other.
This makes 2018 the 4th warmest September in the HadCRUT record. (To two decimal places it would be equal third with 204 at 0.601°C.)
In general temperatures continue to be a bit below the trend since 1970 of 1.73°C / century.
The average anomaly for 2018 so far is 0.585°C, and my prediction is 0.590±0.056°C, compared with 0.593±0.070°C from last month.
The predicted value remains very close to 2014, the current 4th warmest year, at 0.580°C, so it's still on a knife edge where 2018 will finish in the HadCRUT records. Currently I give it around 64% of beating 2014 for 4th place, but if it does finish below this it could plausibly be as low as 8th place, owing to a number of calendar years being very close together.
| Rank | Year | Anomaly | Probability | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 0.8 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 2 | 2015 | 0.76 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 3 | 2017 | 0.68 | 0.15% | 0.15% |
| 4 | 2014 | 0.58 | 64.21% | 64.36% |
| 5 | 2010 | 0.56 | 21.17% | 85.52% |
| 6 | 2005 | 0.55 | 8.46% | 93.98% |
| 7 | 1998 | 0.54 | 2.12% | 96.09% |
| 8 | 2013 | 0.51 | 3.41% | 99.51% |
| 9 | 2003 | 0.51 | 0.25% | 99.75% |
| 10 | 2006 | 0.51 | 0.04% | 99.79% |
| 11 | 2009 | 0.51 | 0.01% | 99.80% |
| 12 | 2002 | 0.5 | 0.10% | 99.91% |
| 13 | 2007 | 0.49 | 0.04% | 99.95% |
| 14 | 2012 | 0.47 | 0.04% | 99.99% |
| 15 | 2004 | 0.45 | 0.00% | 100.00% |
According to NASA's GISTEMP the global surface temperature for September was 0.75°C above the 1951-1980 average. In contrast to the satellite data this is only slightly down on the anomaly in August of 0.77°C, and is the equal 6th warmest September on record. It ties with September 2005, and apart from this the last 6 Septembers have been the warmest 6 on record.
According to the RSS Satellite data, September was 0.488°C warmer than the 1979 - 1998 average. This is cooler than recent Septembers but a smaller drop than UAH's data for September. It was the 9th coolest September since satellite records began, and the coolest since 2014. It was the 4th coolest monthly anomaly of the year. (Contrast with UAH which has this month as the coldest September in 10 years and the coldest anomaly this year.)
Added graphs and a correction.
According to the UAH satellite data, global temperatures were 0.14°C above the 1981-2010 average. This makes September the coldest month (by anomaly) of 2018 so far, with the month being the equal 16th warmest September in the 39 year history of satellite data.
Quick and dull update for GISTEMP.
GISTEMP has the anomaly for August 2018 at 0.77°C, making this the 5th warmest August on record.
August was almost identical to July's 0.78°C, and 4 of the months this year have been between 0.75 and 0.78°C, and all but two month have been within a 10th of a degree of each other.
The Remote Sensing Systems satellite temperature data set (RSS), puts August 2018 at 0.504°C above the 1979-1998 average. This is down about 0.13°C from July, but closer to the rest of 2018. This makes 2018 the 6th warmest August on record.
A quick update from Dr Roy Spencer with the UAH satellite data for August. This was 0.19°C above the 1981-2010 average, down from 0.32°C last month, closer to most of the year's anomalies, suggesting July was a bit of a spike in the satellite data. This makes 2018 the 9th warmest August.
According to the Met Office and Hadley Centre data set, HadCRUT4, the temperature for July 2018 was 0.591°C above the 1961-1990 average. This is slightly higher than the anomaly in June of 0.576°C, but still down on the warmest anomaly months of March and April. Overall the year remains pretty flat with only a tenth of a degree separating all months.
This places July 2018 as the 6th warmest July in the HadCRUT data set.
According to the NASA GISTEMP data set, July 2018 was 0.78°C above the 1951-1980 base period. This is almost identical to the anomaly for last month and continues something of a downturn compared with earlier in the year when the anomaly was over a tenth of a degree warmer. In a way this seems surprising when you consider how hot it has been over much of globe, and is a good illustration of why it's important to look at the whole picture and not just the part of the world you are living in.
It also demonstrates a curious discrepancy between the satellite and surface data sets. All surface data sets have shown, at least using 12 month smoothing, a fairly consistent cooling since the height of the 2016 El Niño, whereas satellite data shows most of the cooling stopping in 2017, with temperature hardly changing since then.
All this is relative though. GISTEMP might be a lot cooler than it was in 2016, but 2018 was still the 3rd warmest July on record, with the last 3 July's being the three warmest on record, with 2015 being the equal 4th warmest July.
As the graph shows the last three years have all had relatively warm Julies. Yet despite this, July 2018 was slightly below the trend counting all months and starting in 1970. This trend is 1.80°C / century.
The average anomaly for 2018 so far is 0.817°C, continuing to decline from a peak of 0.840°C in April. Despite this my prediction for 2018 rose ever so slightly. It now stands at 0.823 ± 0.079°C, compared with the prediction based on data up to June of 0.820 ± 0.087°C.
NB, I don't always spell this out but when I quote the previous months prediction I'm recalculating it with current data. This is not necessarily going to be the same as the actual prediction I made the previous month. Differences can arise because the earliest figure published around two weeks after the end of the month will be modified over the coming weeks. I prefer to use the most recent data, and it's easier to just read the corrected values from my R script than go back over previous postings. For what it's worth my initial prediction made from June 2018 was 0.825°C, so the prediction from July is slightly down not up, but it really makes almost no difference.
That disclaimer over, the prediction is now increasingly that 2018 will be the 4th warmest year on record, placing it between 2010 and 2014. There's around an 85% chance of it finishing exactly in 4th place, but only just over 1% that it will finish below 2010. There's around 14% chance that it will finish above 2014 for 3rd or higher, including a small but non-negligible chance of finishing in 2nd place.
| Rank | Year | Anomaly | Probability | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 0.99 | 0.01% | 0.01% |
| 2 | 2017 | 0.9 | 3.55% | 3.56% |
| 3 | 2015 | 0.86 | 10.67% | 14.23% |
| 4 | 2014 | 0.73 | 84.52% | 98.74% |
| 5 | 2010 | 0.7 | 1.13% | 99.87% |
| 6 | 2005 | 0.67 | 0.11% | 99.98% |
| 7 | 2013 | 0.64 | 0.02% | 100.00% |
According to Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) satellite data, the global anomaly for July 2018 was 0.631°C above the 1979-1998 average. This makes 2018 the third warmest July in the RSS record. The only years warmer were 2010 and 2016, both strong El Niño years.
The trend for all months since 1979 is 1.96°C / century. This July was slightly above the trend. The average over the last 12 months remains above the trend line as.
My simple statistical prediction for the year, is that 2018 will be 0.535±0.081°C. This is slightly up on last month's prediction of 0.527±0.095°C. For comparison the actual average for the first 7 months is 0.514°C, so this will require the following months to warm up slightly compared with the start of the year.
On this basis there is now around a 75% chance that RSS will finish in 6th place, between 2014 and 2015. This is virtually unchanged from last months prediction, but the probability of finishing below 6th place has diminished, from around 1 in 30, to 1 in 100. This means there is now slightly more chance (~25%) of beating 2015, in which case 5th, 4th or 3rd are still possible.
| Rank | Year | Anomaly | Probability | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 0.76 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 2 | 2017 | 0.65 | 0.40% | 0.40% |
| 3 | 2010 | 0.6 | 6.79% | 7.19% |
| 4 | 1998 | 0.58 | 6.32% | 13.51% |
| 5 | 2015 | 0.56 | 9.92% | 23.43% |
| 6 | 2014 | 0.44 | 75.47% | 98.90% |
| 7 | 2005 | 0.44 | 0.15% | 99.05% |
| 8 | 2003 | 0.4 | 0.89% | 99.94% |
| 9 | 2013 | 0.39 | 0.02% | 99.96% |
| 10 | 2007 | 0.39 | 0.00% | 99.97% |
| 11 | 2002 | 0.38 | 0.01% | 99.97% |
| 12 | 2006 | 0.35 | 0.03% | 100.00% |
Dr Roy Spencer has announced the latest monthly global temperature anomaly according to the UAH satellite data set. The anomaly for July was 0.32°C warmer than the 1981 - 2010 average. This is an increase of around 0.1°C over the June anomaly, and makes July the warmest anomaly of the year so far. This is the 4th warmest July on record, only beaten by the El Niño years of 1998, 2010 and 2016.
July was very slightly above the trend line, which shows overall temperature rise at 1.28°C / century. It also means the twelfth month moving average stopped falling for this month.
With half the year already set and temperatures remaining very close to expected values, there was little change in the central prediction for 2018. This is now predicted to be 0.255 ± 0.074°C, compared with the prediction from June of 0.244 ± 0.091°C. This can be compared with the current average anomaly for the year of 0.233°C.
The most likely result is still for 2018 to be slightly cooler than 2015, making it the 6th warmest year in the UAH record. There is now around a 1 in 3 chance of 2018 finishing above 2015 for 5th place, a 1 in 2 chance of finishing in 6th place, and a 1 in 6 chance of finishing below 2002 for 7th or lower.
| Rank | Year | Anomaly | Probability | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 0.51 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 2 | 1998 | 0.48 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 3 | 2017 | 0.38 | 0.11% | 0.11% |
| 4 | 2010 | 0.34 | 1.38% | 1.49% |
| 5 | 2015 | 0.27 | 33.94% | 35.43% |
| 6 | 2002 | 0.22 | 49.64% | 85.07% |
| 7 | 2005 | 0.2 | 8.21% | 93.29% |
| 8 | 2003 | 0.19 | 3.25% | 96.54% |
| 9 | 2014 | 0.18 | 0.98% | 97.52% |
| 10 | 2007 | 0.16 | 1.84% | 99.36% |
| 11 | 2013 | 0.14 | 0.49% | 99.85% |
| 12 | 2001 | 0.12 | 0.12% | 99.97% |
| 13 | 2006 | 0.11 | 0.00% | 99.98% |
| 14 | 2009 | 0.1 | 0.02% | 99.99% |
Despite hot weather in many parts of the world the pattern from UAH at least continues to be pretty stable. So far my mid-range forecast has barely moved, with July being almost identical to the forecast from January.
The NASA and Goddard Institute for Space Studies GISTEMP anomaly for June 2018 is 0.77°C above the 1951 - 1980 average. This is the coolest monthly anomaly of the year, slightly cooler than January's 0.78°C. This is more an indication of how warm the year has been so far. June is the equal third warmest June on record, equal with June 1998 and 0.03 cooler than the record June of 2015.
Temperatures remain very close to the trend since 1970, of 1.81°C / century.
My prediction for 2018 is 0.825±0.088°C, virtually unchanged from last month's prediction of 0.826±0.101°C. This is also very close to the current average for the first 6 months of 0.828°C.
The probability of 2018 being the 4th warmest, between 2014 and 2015, is now more than 80%. There is only a small chance (~2.5%) of finishing below 2014. It is still plausible (~15%) that it will finish 3rd or 2nd.
| Rank | Year | Anomaly | Probability | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 1 | 0.02% | 0.02% |
| 2 | 2017 | 0.9 | 4.46% | 4.48% |
| 3 | 2015 | 0.87 | 10.61% | 15.09% |
| 4 | 2014 | 0.74 | 82.25% | 97.34% |
| 5 | 2010 | 0.7 | 2.27% | 99.62% |
| 6 | 2005 | 0.68 | 0.31% | 99.92% |
| 7 | 2013 | 0.65 | 0.07% | 99.99% |
| 8 | 2007 | 0.64 | 0.01% | 100.00% |
Finally, this graph shows how the prediction has changed during the first half of the year, with the red line showing the average predicted value based on each months data, and the grey area showing the 95% interval.
As with other data sets the fact that there has been very little change in the forecast reflects monthly temperatures being very close to those expected by the long term trend (since 1970).
A brief update on the Remote Sensing System (RSS) satellite global temperature, for June 2018. This has the anomaly for June as 0.465°C above the 1979 - 1998 base period. As with UAH this is similar to April's anomaly and slightly up on May's.
June 2018 was the 7th warmest July in the 40 year RSS data set. The last 6 Junes have been 6 of 8 warmest on record.
The trend for all months over the RSS data set, starting in 1979, is 1.95°C / century, with June continuing the pattern of being slightly below the trend.
The average of the last 12 months remains just above the trend line.
My prediction for 2018 continues to drop slightly, at 0.526 ± 0.095°C, compared with last months prediction of 0.530 ± 0.105°C.
It is most likely that 2018 will finish 6th warmest, between 2014 and 2015. The estimated likelihood of this is around 75%, compared with 68% last month. There is only a small chance of it finishing below 6th warmest (around 3.5%), in which case it would most likely finish in 8th place. On the other hand there is a better than 20% chance of finishing above 2015 for 5th or better, with 3rd place still being possible.
Full details of probabilities listed below.
| Rank | Year | Anomaly | Probability | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 0.76 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 2 | 2017 | 0.65 | 0.70% | 0.70% |
| 3 | 2010 | 0.59 | 7.47% | 8.16% |
| 4 | 1998 | 0.58 | 4.36% | 12.53% |
| 5 | 2015 | 0.56 | 9.02% | 21.55% |
| 6 | 2014 | 0.44 | 75.01% | 96.55% |
| 7 | 2005 | 0.44 | 0.30% | 96.85% |
| 8 | 2003 | 0.39 | 2.74% | 99.59% |
| 9 | 2013 | 0.39 | 0.15% | 99.74% |
| 10 | 2007 | 0.39 | 0.02% | 99.76% |
| 12 | 2006 | 0.35 | 0.20% | 99.96% |
| 13 | 2009 | 0.35 | 0.01% | 99.98% |
| 14 | 2012 | 0.32 | 0.02% | 100.00% |
The average predicted annual value has been mainly dropping throughout the first 6 months of the year, but only slightly, sown about 0.05°C since the prediction in January. The changes so far are well within the 95% confidence interval.
Halfway through the year and global temperatures continue to be dull, at least according to The University Of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) satellite data. Dr Roy Spencer announces that the anomaly for June was 0.21°C above the 1981 - 2010 average. This is the same anomaly as for April and 0.03°C above May, and 0.05°C below January, the month with the highest anomaly. So far has only been 0.08°C difference across the range of all months of 2018. This isn't quite the flattest start to a year in UAH history, 1979 and 2002 both had ranges of 0.07°C over the first 6 months, but it is unusual - the average January to June range is 0.25°C.
June 2018 was the 9th warmest June in the UAH data set.
This graph also gives the impression that Junes as a whole have become more static. Since 2010 there has been relatively little variation in June temperatures compared with the big year to year swings seen previously. I doubt if much can be read into that, it's just a curious observation.
The monthly anomalies continue to be just below the overall trend line.
My prediction for 2018 remains almost unchanged at 0.244 ± 0.091°C, compared with last month's 0.242 ± 0.103°C.
The actual average for the first 6 months of the year is 0.218°C, so this prediction does assume a slight rise in the second half of the year. This in turn is because temperatures are currently just below the trend and the assumption is that it's more likely that temperatures will return to the trend than away from it. It does not take into account any forecasts such as the expected ENSO value.
There has been very little change in the predicted value so far this year, which shouldn't be surprising given the lake of variation in the reported anomalies.
In terms of ranking, UAH continues to show the least certainty, mainly because there is less of a trend in their data. 6th place has the highest probability, but that is still less than 50%. There is around an 80% chance that 2018 will be between 5th and 7th warmest, but with a reasonable possibility it will finish below 7th, possibly as low as 11th. It is unlikely to finish above 5th place.
| Rank | Year | Anomaly | Probability | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 0.51 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 2 | 1998 | 0.48 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 3 | 2017 | 0.38 | 0.28% | 0.28% |
| 4 | 2010 | 0.34 | 2.00% | 2.28% |
| 5 | 2015 | 0.27 | 27.08% | 29.36% |
| 6 | 2002 | 0.22 | 43.16% | 72.52% |
| 7 | 2005 | 0.2 | 11.14% | 83.66% |
| 8 | 2003 | 0.19 | 5.78% | 89.44% |
| 9 | 2014 | 0.18 | 2.37% | 91.81% |
| 10 | 2007 | 0.16 | 4.82% | 96.63% |
| 11 | 2013 | 0.14 | 2.20% | 98.83% |
| 12 | 2001 | 0.12 | 0.81% | 99.64% |
| 13 | 2006 | 0.11 | 0.05% | 99.69% |
| 14 | 2009 | 0.1 | 0.21% | 99.90% |
| 15 | 2004 | 0.08 | 0.06% | 99.95% |
| 16 | 1995 | 0.07 | 0.02% | 99.98% |
| 17 | 2012 | 0.06 | 0.01% | 99.99% |
| 18 | 1987 | 0.05 | 0.01% | 99.99% |
| 19 | 1988 | 0.04 | 0.00% | 100.00% |
The Met Office Hadley Centre, HadCRUT, data set has the anomaly for May 2018 at 0.596°C above the 1961-1990 base period. This makes 2018 the 5th warmest May in the data set, with the last 5 Mays being the 5 warmest, (although there's very little difference between 2018 and the 6th warmest in 2010).
May continues the story of 2018 being slightly below the trend from 1970.
The average for the first 5 months of 2018 is 0.585°C, up slightly from the first 4 months of 0.582°C. My prediction based on a simple statistical analysis is that 2018 will have an average anomaly of 0.612 ± 0.106°C. This is almost unchanged from the previous prediction from data up to April of 0.613 ± 0.115°C.
It is most likely (~60%) that HadCRUT will finishing as the 4th warmest year on record, with a greater than 80% chance of finishing between 3rd and 5th. However, it is unlikely to be above 3rd place, ans there is a reasonable chance of finishing below 5th, in which case it could be much lower, with a small chance of being below 13th.
| Rank | Year | Anomaly | Probability | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 0.8 | 0.05% | 0.05% |
| 2 | 2015 | 0.76 | 0.24% | 0.28% |
| 3 | 2017 | 0.68 | 10.35% | 10.63% |
| 4 | 2014 | 0.58 | 62.04% | 72.67% |
| 5 | 2010 | 0.56 | 10.77% | 83.45% |
| 6 | 2005 | 0.55 | 5.77% | 89.22% |
| 7 | 1998 | 0.54 | 1.96% | 91.18% |
| 8 | 2013 | 0.51 | 5.28% | 96.46% |
| 9 | 2003 | 0.51 | 0.91% | 97.37% |
| 10 | 2006 | 0.51 | 0.19% | 97.56% |
| 11 | 2009 | 0.51 | 0.06% | 97.62% |
| 12 | 2002 | 0.5 | 0.67% | 98.28% |
| 13 | 2007 | 0.49 | 0.39% | 98.67% |
| 14 | 2012 | 0.47 | 0.83% | 99.50% |
| 15 | 2004 | 0.45 | 0.34% | 99.84% |
| 16 | 2001 | 0.44 | 0.04% | 99.89% |
| 17 | 2011 | 0.42 | 0.07% | 99.96% |
| 18 | 2008 | 0.4 | 0.04% | 99.99% |
| 20 | 1995 | 0.33 | 0.01% | 100.00% |
I should have mentioned this earlier, but people of New Orleans are in grave danger.
Piers Corbyn the alternative weather forcaster who claims to be able to predict the weather months in advance with proven skill verified by independent academic statisticians and published in scientific literature
,
has a message on his website,
archived here warning of a hurricane that will hit near New Orleans.
WeatherAction* Public Hurricane Warning for likely Cat2 hit on Usa Gulf coast likely near NewOrleans about Jun29 +-1 day or so. Pass it on - WARN any contacts you know in Usa
*This warning is in line with WeatherAction policy to make LongRange Forecasts public when dangerous weather is likely.
I realize I might have left this a little late to pass on the warning, it already being the 29th, and with no forecast of any event from the official
sources (or charlatans as Piers would have it).
The Goddard Institute for Space Studies have released the update for their GISTEMP data set. May 2018 was 0.82°C above the 1951-1980 base period. This makes 2018 the 4th warmest May in the data set, with the last 5 Mays being the warmest on record.
In this post I'll be looking at the two main satellite global temperature sets for May 2018.
The University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH), has the lower troposphere at 0.18°C warmer than the 1981 - 2010 base period.
Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) has the lower troposphere at 0.41°C warmer than their 1979 - 1998 base period. If RSS used the same base period as UAH, this would mean RSS would have an anomaly of 0.30°C.
Both data sets show a continuing fall in anomalies, with May being the coolest seasonally adjusted month of the year. UAH has 2018 as the 10th warmest May in its 40 year history.
RSS had the 7th warmest May.
Both data sets show May as being more noticeably below the trend line, but not in any way unusually so.
The trend for both data sets is somewhat different, with UAH warming at the rate of 1.28°C / century, and RSS at the rate of 1.92°C / century. All surface data sets fall between these two extremes over the same period, though generally a lot closer to RSS than UAH.
The statistical prediction for each data set takes into account both the average anomaly for the year so far and the underlying trend. For UAH the prediction based on data up to May is for 2018 to have an average anomaly of 0.242 ± 0.103°C, compared to the prediction based on data up to April of 0.246 ± 0.117°C. This compares with the current average for the year of 0.22°C.
For RSS the current prediction is 0.520 ± 1.05°C, compared with last month's prediction of 0.527 ± 0.118°C. This compares with a current average of 0.487°C.
UAH has the most uncertainty of all the data sets, mostly because of it's slower rate of warming. 5th or 6th (~66%), with little chance of finishing above 5th, but with a reasonable chance (~30%) of finishing below 6th, possibly as low as 12th.
For RSS there is now almost a 70% likelihood of finishing 6th, with only a small chance (~5%) of finishing below 6th, but with a reasonable (~25%) of being higher than 6th, possibly as high as 3rd.
Comparing these probabilities with those for surface data it's worth noting the role that the two strong El Niño years play in the satellite data. 1998 and 2010 are still among the warmest years in satellite history, but in surface data are relatively cooler. Satellite data is tending towards 2018 being 6th or so warmest, whilst surface data is likely to be around 4th warmest, but in terms of recent years both are looking very similar.
| Rank | Year | Anomaly | Probability | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 0.51 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 2 | 1998 | 0.48 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 3 | 2017 | 0.38 | 0.61% | 0.61% |
| 4 | 2010 | 0.34 | 2.90% | 3.50% |
| 5 | 2015 | 0.27 | 26.94% | 30.45% |
| 6 | 2002 | 0.22 | 38.73% | 69.18% |
| 7 | 2005 | 0.2 | 10.81% | 79.99% |
| 8 | 2003 | 0.19 | 6.05% | 86.04% |
| 9 | 2014 | 0.18 | 2.64% | 88.67% |
| 10 | 2007 | 0.16 | 5.87% | 94.54% |
| 11 | 2013 | 0.14 | 3.18% | 97.72% |
| 12 | 2001 | 0.12 | 1.42% | 99.14% |
| Below 12 | N/A | N/A | 0.86% | 100% |
| Rank | Year | Anomaly | Probability | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 0.75 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 2 | 2017 | 0.64 | 1.36% | 1.36% |
| 3 | 2010 | 0.58 | 10.33% | 11.69% |
| 4 | 1998 | 0.58 | 0.73% | 12.42% |
| 5 | 2015 | 0.56 | 12.44% | 24.86% |
| 6 | 2005 | 0.44 | 69.55% | 94.41% |
| 7 | 2014 | 0.43 | 1.03% | 95.44% |
| 8 | 2003 | 0.39 | 3.71% | 99.16% |
| 9 | 2002 | 0.38 | 0.23% | 99.38% |
| 10 | 2013 | 0.38 | 0.18% | 99.56% |
| Below 10 | N/A | N/A | 0.44% | 100% |
