Now that we have all of the Satellite data and two of the surface data sets for August, I'll post a brief update to my ongoing prediction series, rather than wait till the end of the month for HadCRUT.
With the exception of RSS 3.3 all data sets have shown an increased anomaly for August.
An interesting point is that with August UAH beta 6 has now beaten its record for warmest consecutive 12 month period. The anomaly for the last 12 months have been 0.496 °C, compared with the previous record set at the end of 1998 of 0.482 °C. This means that all datasets are showing the world as having just had its warmest 12 months on record.
But what about the all important calendar year?
The forecast for the two surface sets has increased slightly, all of the satellite sets have decreased slightly. The two cool satellite sets are edging close to the 1998 value. UAH beta 6 is only now forecast to beat 1998 by 0.03 °C.
A very slight drop in probability for the two cool satellite sets, 86% for RSS 3.3, 76% for UAH beta 6. All other sets that have posted August values are greater than 99%.
Continuing to look at UAH beta 6, as it's the least certain and undoubtedly gain the most attention if it doesn't beat the record (thus proving there is no global warming!). The average of the first 8 months of 2016 is slightly less than that for 1998. (0.566 °C verses 0.573 °C) To beat the 1998 record the remaining 4 months will need to average more than 0.315 °C per month, slightly more than the last 4 months of 1998 which averaged 0.3025 °C. Here's the comparison between 2016 and 1998, with the dashed line showing the average needed for 2016 to equal 1998.
For comparison, here's the older version of UAH, which looks almost certain to beat the record.
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