A brief update for GISTEMP, whilst I try to get some more interesting posts completed. I'm only updating a few data sets a month for now, as they are mostly pretty similar.
GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP) has March 2018, at 0.89°C above the base period of 1951 - 1980. This is 0.1°C warmer than the anomaly for February. It makes 2018 the 6th warmest March, with the last 4 Marches being 4 of the 6 warmest on record.
As is something of a theme so far for 2018 across all the data sets, March was close to the trend since 1970.
The average anomaly for the first 3 months of 2018 is 0.817°C. My forecast for 2018 is 0.802 ±0.166°C, which is almost identical to the forecast from February.
This would put 2018 between the big gap between 2014 and 2015. There is around a 74% chance of 2018 being the 4th warmest, and a greater than 99% likelihood of being between 7th and 2nd warmest.
| Rank | Year | Anomaly | Probability | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 0.99 | 0.13% | 0.13% |
| 2 | 2017 | 0.89 | 5.95% | 6.08% |
| 3 | 2015 | 0.86 | 8.70% | 14.79% |
| 4 | 2014 | 0.73 | 73.83% | 88.61% |
| 5 | 2010 | 0.7 | 7.10% | 95.71% |
| 6 | 2005 | 0.68 | 2.30% | 98.01% |
| 7 | 2013 | 0.64 | 1.56% | 99.58% |
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