The Remote Sensing Systems satellite temperature data set (RSS), puts August 2018 at 0.504°C above the 1979-1998 average. This is down about 0.13°C from July, but closer to the rest of 2018. This makes 2018 the 6th warmest August on record.
The trend in August temperatures since 1979 is 2.03°C / century, slightly faster than the overall trend of 1.97°C / century. This makes RSS the fastest warming data set. In contrast UAH satellite data is the slowest warming with a trend of 1.28°C / century.
August 2018 is slightly below the trend, though the average of the last 12 months is almost exactly on trend.
Predictions
The prediction for 2018 drops slightly to 0.531 ± 0.07°C, compared to the prediction from last months data of 0.537 ± 0.081°C.
The next graph shows how the predictions have changed throughout the year. There's been a generally consistent decrease in the central prediction, but it is overall very small, only about 0.04°C from the start of the year, and well within the overall uncertainty.
Ignoring the above, my statistical prediction says there is about a 5 in 6 chance that 2018 will finish in 6th place, between 2014 and 2015. It is very unlikely to finish below 6th place (though if it does it will probably finish below 7th place as 6th and 7th are nearly identical). There is about a 1 in 6 chance of finishing warmer than 6th place, possibly as high as 3rd place.
| Rank | Year | Anomaly | Probability | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 0.77 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 2 | 2017 | 0.65 | 0.08% | 0.08% |
| 3 | 2010 | 0.6 | 2.97% | 3.05% |
| 4 | 1998 | 0.58 | 5.22% | 8.28% |
| 5 | 2015 | 0.57 | 6.93% | 15.21% |
| 6 | 2014 | 0.44 | 84.01% | 99.21% |
| 7 | 2005 | 0.44 | 0.16% | 99.38% |
| 8 | 2003 | 0.4 | 0.60% | 99.98% |
| 9 | 2013 | 0.39 | 0.01% | 99.98% |
| 11 | 2002 | 0.39 | 0.00% | 99.99% |
| 12 | 2006 | 0.36 | 0.01% | 100.00% |
Personal Guesswork
The average anomaly of the first 8 months is 0.514°C. The central prediction is 0.531°C so this would require the rest of the year to be warmer. Specifically the last 4 months will have to average 0.565°C to hit the predicted value. I suspect therefore that it's more likely we will see 2018 finish below this, but it will depend a lot on ENSO conditions.
Given that I think it is very likely that 2018 is going to finish in 6th place. Temperatures would have to plummet to below 0.3°C for the rest of the year to drop below the 0.44 of 2014. But they would have to rise to around 0.68°C for the rest of the year to beat 2015. This is only really possible if there is a strong El Niño. Current predictions from NOAA are that there's a 60% chance of an El Niño emerging by fall, but even then I would imagine this will be too late to have the required effect over the next 4 months.
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