According to the Met Office Hadley Centre data set (HadCRUT, September 2018 was 0.596°C above the 1961-1990 average. This is virtually the same as the anomaly for the last two months. In fact the last three months have been within 0.005°C of each other.
This makes 2018 the 4th warmest September in the HadCRUT record. (To two decimal places it would be equal third with 204 at 0.601°C.)
In general temperatures continue to be a bit below the trend since 1970 of 1.73°C / century.
The average anomaly for 2018 so far is 0.585°C, and my prediction is 0.590±0.056°C, compared with 0.593±0.070°C from last month.
The predicted value remains very close to 2014, the current 4th warmest year, at 0.580°C, so it's still on a knife edge where 2018 will finish in the HadCRUT records. Currently I give it around 64% of beating 2014 for 4th place, but if it does finish below this it could plausibly be as low as 8th place, owing to a number of calendar years being very close together.
| Rank | Year | Anomaly | Probability | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 0.8 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 2 | 2015 | 0.76 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 3 | 2017 | 0.68 | 0.15% | 0.15% |
| 4 | 2014 | 0.58 | 64.21% | 64.36% |
| 5 | 2010 | 0.56 | 21.17% | 85.52% |
| 6 | 2005 | 0.55 | 8.46% | 93.98% |
| 7 | 1998 | 0.54 | 2.12% | 96.09% |
| 8 | 2013 | 0.51 | 3.41% | 99.51% |
| 9 | 2003 | 0.51 | 0.25% | 99.75% |
| 10 | 2006 | 0.51 | 0.04% | 99.79% |
| 11 | 2009 | 0.51 | 0.01% | 99.80% |
| 12 | 2002 | 0.5 | 0.10% | 99.91% |
| 13 | 2007 | 0.49 | 0.04% | 99.95% |
| 14 | 2012 | 0.47 | 0.04% | 99.99% |
| 15 | 2004 | 0.45 | 0.00% | 100.00% |
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