Introduction
Here are my predictions for 2017, updated for data up to July. First the usual disclaimer, all these predictions are my own, based on simple statistical inference. They are not based on climate models or forecasts. They are just a bit of fun, and a chance for me to mess about with R. See here for the June predictions.
The main headline from July is that nothing much has changed. The predictions for all data sets are the same as they were for June (to the nearest hundredth of a degree). The confidence in these predictions has increased, so the probabilities of the likely positions will have changed.
The follow shows the details for each of the main data sets. For each set there is a description of the expected value for 2017, followed by a graph showing the previous annual anomalies starting in 1979, and the 95% prediction interval for 2017. Finally there is a table listing the current warmest years for the set along with the probability of 2017 finishing at each position, and the change since the June predictions.
All anomalies are compared to the base period used the the providers of each data set, so should not be compared with each other.
The Predictions
UAH 6
The anomaly for UAH 6 up to July is 0.30 °C. The predicted anomaly for 2017 is 0.30 ± 0.07 °C. This would make 2017 the 4th warmest year on record.
| Rank | Year | Anomaly | Percent | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2016 | 0.51 °C | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| 2nd | 1998 | 0.48 °C | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| 3rd | 2010 | 0.33 °C | 19.4% | -3.3% |
| 4th | 2015 | 0.26 °C | 65.2% | +9.9% |
| 5th | 2002 | 0.22 °C | 14.3% | -4.3% |
| 6th | 2005 | 0.20 °C | 0.8% | -1.2% |
| 7th | 2003 | 0.19 °C | 0.2% | -0.5% |
| 8th | 2014 | 0.18 °C | 0.0% | -0.3% |
RSS 4
The anomaly for RSS 4 up to July is 0.58 °C. The predicted anomaly for 2017 is 0.57 ± 0.08 °C. This would make 2017 the 3rd warmest year on record.
| Rank | Year | Anomaly | Percent | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2016 | 0.74 °C | 0.0% | -0.1% |
| 2nd | 1998 | 0.58 °C | 41.7% | -0.3% |
| 3rd | 2010 | 0.56 °C | 21.2% | +3.0% |
| 4th | 2015 | 0.54 °C | 18.2% | +1.7% |
| 5th | 2005 | 0.42 °C | 18.9% | -4.2% |
| 6th | 2014 | 0.41 °C | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| 7th | 2003 | 0.39 °C | 0.0% | -0.1% |
| 8th | 2002 | 0.38 °C | 0.0% | +0.0% |
GISSTemp
The anomaly for GISSTemp up to July is 0.94 °C. The predicted anomaly for 2017 is 0.91 ± 0.08 °C. This would make 2017 the 2nd warmest year on record.
| Rank | Year | Anomaly | Percent | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2016 | 1.00 °C | 2.3% | -1.0% |
| 2nd | 2015 | 0.87 °C | 83.8% | +3.9% |
| 3rd | 2014 | 0.73 °C | 13.9% | -2.9% |
| 4th | 2010 | 0.70 °C | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| 5th | 2005 | 0.67 °C | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| 6th | 2007 | 0.64 °C | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| 7th | 2013 | 0.64 °C | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| 8th | 2009 | 0.63 °C | 0.0% | +0.0% |
NOAA
The anomaly for NOAA up to July is 0.90 °C. The predicted anomaly for 2017 is 0.87 ± 0.08 °C. This would make 2017 the 3rd warmest year on record.
| Rank | Year | Anomaly | Percent | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2016 | 0.95 °C | 2.7% | -1.7% |
| 2nd | 2015 | 0.91 °C | 15.2% | -1.3% |
| 3rd | 2014 | 0.75 °C | 82.0% | +3.2% |
| 4th | 2010 | 0.70 °C | 0.1% | -0.2% |
| 5th | 2013 | 0.67 °C | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| 6th | 2005 | 0.66 °C | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| 7th | 2009 | 0.64 °C | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| 8th | 1998 | 0.63 °C | 0.0% | +0.0% |
HadCRUT
The anomaly for HadCRUT up to July is 0.73 °C. The expected anomaly for 2017 is 0.72 ± 0.08 °C. This would make 2017 the 3rd warmest year on record.
| Rank | Year | Anomaly | Percent | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2016 | 0.77 °C | 7.5% | -4.8% |
| 2nd | 2015 | 0.76 °C | 5.7% | -1.0% |
| 3rd | 2014 | 0.58 °C | 86.7% | +5.9% |
| 4th | 2010 | 0.56 °C | 0.1% | -0.1% |
| 5th | 2005 | 0.55 °C | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| 6th | 1998 | 0.54 °C | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| 7th | 2013 | 0.51 °C | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| 8th | 2003 | 0.51 °C | 0.0% | +0.0% |
Summary
This bar chart shows the estimated probabilities for each data set.
Conclusion
The two satellite sets are most likely to finish 4th warmest or higher, but with a reasonable chance of finishing 5th. For UAH 6, there's a slim chance it could finish 6th or lower. For RSS 4 there is a reasonable chance of beating 1998 to finish 2nd.
The surface data sets are almost certain to finish at least 3rd warmest. Hadley and NOAA are both very likely to be 3rd, but GISSTemp is most likely to finish 2nd. The differences between the data sets has more to do with the relative position of 2015, than with the temperature for 2017.
What all sets continue to show is that on the basis of the first 7 months, 2017 is very likely to be another very warm year. There is no sign of a return to any sort of pause.
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