We now have updates from both the GISS and NOAA surface temperature records for August. Both show another warm month. Second warmest August in the GISS record, third warmest for NOAA. There isn't much of an actual difference between the two.
This has made vary little difference to either the current average, or my predictions for 2017. For GISS the average for 2017 up to August is 0.93 °C, compared with 0.94 °C up to July. The prediction for 2017 is 0.91 ± 0.07°C, unchanged from the prediction in July apart from slightly more confidence.
For NOAA the average for 2017 up to August is 0.88 °C, compared with 0.89 °C up to July. The prediction for 2017 is 0.86 ± 0.07°C, compared with a prediction of 0.87 ± 0.08;deg;C in July.
The differences in predictions for GISS and NOAA are due to rounding to two decimal places. In both cases the predictions dropped by around 0.001 °C.
The slight narrowing of the prediction intervals has firmed by the probabilities a bit, and it looks increasingly likely that 2017 will be 2nd warmest in the GISS record, and 3rd warmest in NOAA's.
Below are the tables showing the probability, based on data up to August, of each data set finishing at the specified position, and the change from the predictions made based on data from July.
| Rank | Year | Anomaly | Probability | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2016 | 0.99 °C | 1.2% | -1.6% |
| 2nd | 2015 | 0.87 °C | 87.9% | +4.4% |
| 3rd | 2014 | 0.73 °C | 10.9% | -2.8% |
| Rank | Year | Anomaly | Probability | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2016 | 0.94 °C | 1.3% | -1.7% |
| 2nd | 2015 | 0.90 °C | 13.3% | -2.9% |
| 3rd | 2014 | 0.74 °C | 85.4% | +4.7% |
| 4th | 2010 | 0.70 °C | 0.0% | -0.1% |
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