The October data for RSS 4 has been released. As with UAH it's a record October.
Temperatures
October was 0.80 °C above the base period of 1979 - 1998. This is the warmest October on record, 0.08 °C warmer than the previous record set in 2015. As with UAH the three most recent Octobers have been the three warmest.
The anomaly for October was slightly down on that for September, but the cumulative year-to-date average continues to increase. It is now 0.643 °C, up from 0.625 °C in September.
Predictions
The projection for 2017 is now 0.621 ± 0.043 °C, compared with the forecast based on data up to September of 0.605 ± 0.060 °C.
RSS is looking quite likely to finish as the 2nd warmest year, with only about 3% chance of failing to beat current 2nd place of 1998.
| Rank | Year | Anomaly | Probability | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 0.74 | 0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2 | 1998 | 0.58 | 96.91% | +17.31% |
| 3 | 2010 | 0.56 | 2.55% | -9.01% |
| 4 | 2015 | 0.54 | 0.52% | -6.58% |
| 5 | 2005 | 0.42 | 0.03% | -1.72% |
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