Temperature Updates - October 2017, GISS

Here is my analysis of NASA's GISTEMP global temperature data for October 2017. All figures are for the Anomaly compared to the 1951 - 1980 base period.

One important note - all comparisons to previous months data and predictions are based on the current data. There are often minor changes to the data in the months following the first publication as more data is added or corrected. I always recalculate my predictions using the current published data, so it is possible the changes to my predictions will not reflect the exact predictions I made the previous month.

Data

The anomaly in October was 0.90°C, compared to 0.80°C in September. This is the second warmest October, although almost identical to last October's figure of 0.89°C. The last four Octobers have been the four warmest on record.

The rolling 12 month average rose by an insignificant amount, less than 0.001°C.

The average for the year is now 0.911°C, almost unchanged from the average up to September of 0.912°C.

Predictions

The prediction for 2017 is now for a final average of 0.904 ± 0.039°C. This is unchanged apart from greater confidence, from the prediction from September of 0.904 ± 0.054°C.

The probability of GISTEMP having it's second warmest year has increased to over 95%.

Probability of GISTEMP Rankings for 2017 - From Data to October.

Rank	Year	Anomaly	Probability	Change
1	2016	0.99	0.00%	-0.10%
2	2015	0.87	95.55%	+5.94%
3	2014	0.73	4.44%	-5.84%