Temperature Update - May 2018, GISTEMP

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies have released the update for their GISTEMP data set. May 2018 was 0.82°C above the 1951-1980 base period. This makes 2018 the 4th warmest May in the data set, with the last 5 Mays being the warmest on record.

This continues the general pattern of 2018 being close to the long term trend.

The average for the first 5 months of 2018 is 0.828°C.

Prediction

My statistical prediction for 2018 is now 0.817 ± 0.100°C. There is little difference to the prediction based on last month's data of 0.811 ± 0.107°C.

The probability of 2018 finishing in 4th place increases to approaching 80%, with less than 5% chance that it will finish below 4th. 2nd or 3rd place is still possible.

GISTEMP

Rank	Year	Anomaly	Probability	Cumulative
1	2016	0.99	0.05%	0.05%
2	2017	0.89	6.57%	6.63%
3	2015	0.87	9.60%	16.23%
4	2014	0.73	78.65%	94.88%
5	2010	0.7	4.10%	98.98%
6	2005	0.67	0.75%	99.73%
7	2013	0.64	0.21%	99.94%
8	2007	0.64	0.02%	99.96%
9	2009	0.64	0.01%	99.97%
10	2002	0.62	0.02%	99.98%

Here's how the prediction has changed over the year.

There's been very little change in the central prediction so far. This is really a consequence of the start of the year being so close to the trend. At the start of the year it seemed likely that temperatures would fall of as a La Niña developed, but that probability has faded and there's even now the possibility of another El Niño developing later in the year.