A brief update on the Remote Sensing System (RSS) satellite global temperature, for June 2018. This has the anomaly for June as 0.465°C above the 1979 - 1998 base period. As with UAH this is similar to April's anomaly and slightly up on May's.
June 2018 was the 7th warmest July in the 40 year RSS data set. The last 6 Junes have been 6 of 8 warmest on record.
The trend for all months over the RSS data set, starting in 1979, is 1.95°C / century, with June continuing the pattern of being slightly below the trend.
The average of the last 12 months remains just above the trend line.
Prediction
My prediction for 2018 continues to drop slightly, at 0.526 ± 0.095°C, compared with last months prediction of 0.530 ± 0.105°C.
It is most likely that 2018 will finish 6th warmest, between 2014 and 2015. The estimated likelihood of this is around 75%, compared with 68% last month. There is only a small chance of it finishing below 6th warmest (around 3.5%), in which case it would most likely finish in 8th place. On the other hand there is a better than 20% chance of finishing above 2015 for 5th or better, with 3rd place still being possible.
Full details of probabilities listed below.
| Rank | Year | Anomaly | Probability | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 0.76 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 2 | 2017 | 0.65 | 0.70% | 0.70% |
| 3 | 2010 | 0.59 | 7.47% | 8.16% |
| 4 | 1998 | 0.58 | 4.36% | 12.53% |
| 5 | 2015 | 0.56 | 9.02% | 21.55% |
| 6 | 2014 | 0.44 | 75.01% | 96.55% |
| 7 | 2005 | 0.44 | 0.30% | 96.85% |
| 8 | 2003 | 0.39 | 2.74% | 99.59% |
| 9 | 2013 | 0.39 | 0.15% | 99.74% |
| 10 | 2007 | 0.39 | 0.02% | 99.76% |
| 12 | 2006 | 0.35 | 0.20% | 99.96% |
| 13 | 2009 | 0.35 | 0.01% | 99.98% |
| 14 | 2012 | 0.32 | 0.02% | 100.00% |
The average predicted annual value has been mainly dropping throughout the first 6 months of the year, but only slightly, sown about 0.05°C since the prediction in January. The changes so far are well within the 95% confidence interval.
No comments:
Post a Comment