The NASA and Goddard Institute for Space Studies GISTEMP anomaly for June 2018 is 0.77°C above the 1951 - 1980 average. This is the coolest monthly anomaly of the year, slightly cooler than January's 0.78°C. This is more an indication of how warm the year has been so far. June is the equal third warmest June on record, equal with June 1998 and 0.03 cooler than the record June of 2015.
Temperatures remain very close to the trend since 1970, of 1.81°C / century.
Prediction
My prediction for 2018 is 0.825±0.088°C, virtually unchanged from last month's prediction of 0.826±0.101°C. This is also very close to the current average for the first 6 months of 0.828°C.
The probability of 2018 being the 4th warmest, between 2014 and 2015, is now more than 80%. There is only a small chance (~2.5%) of finishing below 2014. It is still plausible (~15%) that it will finish 3rd or 2nd.
| Rank | Year | Anomaly | Probability | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 1 | 0.02% | 0.02% |
| 2 | 2017 | 0.9 | 4.46% | 4.48% |
| 3 | 2015 | 0.87 | 10.61% | 15.09% |
| 4 | 2014 | 0.74 | 82.25% | 97.34% |
| 5 | 2010 | 0.7 | 2.27% | 99.62% |
| 6 | 2005 | 0.68 | 0.31% | 99.92% |
| 7 | 2013 | 0.65 | 0.07% | 99.99% |
| 8 | 2007 | 0.64 | 0.01% | 100.00% |
Finally, this graph shows how the prediction has changed during the first half of the year, with the red line showing the average predicted value based on each months data, and the grey area showing the 95% interval.
As with other data sets the fact that there has been very little change in the forecast reflects monthly temperatures being very close to those expected by the long term trend (since 1970).
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