According to GISTEMP, global temperatures for October 2018 were 0.99°C above the 1951-1980 average. This is quite some rise, though you shouldn't put too much store in any individual month. It's up by 0.25°C from last months anomaly and is the warmest monthly anomaly of the year. It puts 2018 as the 2nd warmest October in the GISTEMP history, starting in 1880.
October is somewhat above the trend since 1970 of 1.81°C / century. The average of the last 12 months is almost exactly on the trend line.
It will be interesting to see if warmth is reflected in other surface data sets. The other main surface data set to report so far, BEST also shows October sharply up, but puts the month around 0.1°C cooler than GISTEMP.
Predictions
On the basis of current data my prediction now is for 2018 to average 0.822 ± 0.039°C, compared with the prediction using last month's data of 0.81 &pm 0.053°C. The actual avergae for the first 10 months is 0.82°C.
I've already said it is difficult to see 208 not finishing in 4th place, between 2014 and 205. My probability forecast now agrees with a better than 99% chance of finishing 4th. It give no chance of finishing below 2014 and only a 0.66% chance of finishing 3rd.
| Rank | Year | Anomaly | Probability | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 1 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 2 | 2017 | 0.9 | 0.01% | 0.01% |
| 3 | 2015 | 0.87 | 0.66% | 0.67% |
| 4 | 2014 | 0.74 | 99.33% | 100.00% |
This will mean the last 5 years have been the 5 warmest on record.
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