According to the Met Office and Haley Centre global temperature analysis, HadCRUT, October 2018 was 0.687°C above the average for 1961-1990. This makes October the warmest anomaly of the year, and the 2nd warmest October on record.
This is similar to the pattern from GISTEMP, but the rise from the previous month is less. In the HadCRUT data October is almost exactly on the trend since 1970,
Predictions
October had little impact on my simple forecast, with 2018 now predicted to finish at 0.594 ± 0.041°C, compared with last months prediction of 0.591 ± 0.056°C.
My statistical method now gives around a 75% chance that 2018 will be warmer than 2014, to put it in 4th place. This compares with last months prediction of around 65%.
| Rank | Year | Anomaly | Probability | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 0.8 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 2 | 2015 | 0.76 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 3 | 2017 | 0.68 | 0.01% | 0.01% |
| 4 | 2014 | 0.58 | 75.80% | 75.81% |
| 5 | 2010 | 0.56 | 19.17% | 94.98% |
| 6 | 2005 | 0.55 | 3.95% | 98.93% |
| 7 | 1998 | 0.54 | 0.57% | 99.50% |
| 8 | 2013 | 0.51 | 0.48% | 99.99% |
| 9 | 2003 | 0.51 | 0.01% | 100.00% |
Realistically though I think it much less likely that 2018 will finish below 2014. For this to happen the remaining two months will have to average less than 0.503, which is colder than any month seen so far this year, or any month since 2014. The last time two consecutive months were below this was early 2013. It's not by any means impossible, but would require a completely unexpected return to pre El Niño levels at a time when there are signs of a new El Niño emerging.
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