Dr Roy Spencer has released the November 2017 global temperatures for the UAH 6 lower troposphere satellite data set. This shows a big drop in the anomaly compared to last month's record breaker, but still pretty warm.
Details
The anomaly in November was 0.36°C compared to 0.63°C in October, and down a tenth of a degree from last November. However, this still makes 2017 the 2nd warmest November in the UAH data set. The last three years have had the three warmest Novembers in the set.
The mean of the first 11 months of 2017 is 0.372°C compared with 0.373°C for the first 10 months.
The 12 month rolling average is beginning to move down slightly from its unexpected jump upwards, but I expect it should start moving down more over the next year as La Ni&ntilda;a takes hold.
Predictions
With just one month of 2017 to go, my simple statistical analysis predicts 2017 will finish at 0.364 ± 0.028°C, compared with last months prediction of 0.359 ± 0.043°C.
This has made it far more likely that 2017 will finish as the 3rd warmest year, with less than a 1 in 50 chance of dropping below 2010 for 4th place.
| Rank | Year | Anomaly | Probability | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 0.51 | 0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2 | 1998 | 0.48 | 0.00% | -0.00% |
| 3 | 2010 | 0.33 | 98.30% | +10.02% |
| 4 | 2015 | 0.27 | 1.70% | -10.02% |
However, I suspect this is too certain. For 2017 to finish below 2010, December would only have to drop to around 0.13°C. This would be equal to December 2013 and 2012, so with temperatures dropping from the very high values of the last few years it doesn't seem that unlikely. In any event, it's clear that 2017 will be another hot year, similar to 2010, hotter than 2015, and the hottest El Niño year that was not a major El Ninño.
How remarkable the last few years have been is much clearer if rather than focusing on one calendar year, we look at 2 yearly averages.
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