NASA's released the latest GISTEMP data.
The anomaly for November was 0.87°C compared with the 1951 - 1980 base period. This is down slightly from 0.90°C in October. This is the 3rd warmest November on record. The last three Novembers have been the three warmest Novembers on record.
It is extraordinary how much warmer the last three years have been in November compared with any previous year. The equal 4th warmest Novembers were 2010 and 2013, and they were almost a tenth of a degree cooler than this current month.
The 12 year rolling average continues to cool from the el Niño peak.
The cumulative average for 2017 is virtually unchanged, down to 0.901°C from 0.904°C up to October.
Forecast
My forecast for 2017 is now 0.895 ± 0.025°C, compared with the forecast from October of 0.897 ± 0.04°C.
It is increasingly likely that this will be the 2nd warmest year on record. In any event 2017 will be very close to 2015, two very warm years sandwiching a much warmer year.
| Rank | Year | Anomaly | Probability | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 0.99 | 0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2 | 2015 | 0.87 | 97.99% | +5.38% |
| 3 | 2014 | 0.73 | 2.01% | -5.38% |
For 2017 to drop to 3rd place will require December to drop to around 0.53°C. The last time a December was this cool was 2012.
Other Data Sets
I'm not giving detailed monthly updates on BEST and NOAA, but with one month to go here's a brief update on them.
BEST is very similar to GISTEMP. November was also the third warmest on record, and it is also shows 2017 on track to be second warmest, with similar (slightly better) odds to GISTEMP.
NOAA has a somewhat cooler month with November 2017 being identical to 2016 at equal 5th warmest. According to my statistical model NOAA is now 100% certain to finish 3rd warmest, and looking at the graph it is easy to see why.
As with HadCRUT the fact that NOAA is finishing in a different position to GISTEMP and BEST has more to do with how warm 2015 was than with a big drop in 2017.
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