A Christmas present from the Met Office and Hadley Centre as they release the November HadCRUT data early.
This shows the anomaly in November to be 0.547°C, compared to the 1961 - 1990 base period. This is slightly cooler than last November, and in contrast to GISTEMP and BEST is only the 10th warmest November on record.
This is much more like the pattern for November in the NOAA data set. The differences between the different data sets possibly is due to the extend different sets cover the Arctic.
The 12 month rolling average for HadCRUT looks like this.
The average anomaly for 2017 so far is 0.685°C, down from 0.699°C up to October. My prediction for 2017 is now 0.681 ± 0.026°C, compared with last months prediction of 0.692 ± 0.041°C.
As can be seen from the graph it's difficult to see HadCRUT finishing anywhere other than 3rd warmest. In fact my statistical model makes this 100% certain.
| Rank | Year | Anomaly | Probability | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 0.8 | 0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2 | 2015 | 0.76 | 0.00% | -0.05% |
| 3 | 2014 | 0.58 | 100.00% | +0.05% |
I'm not going to disagree with that. December could be anywhere from -0.57 to +1.63°C, and 2017 would still finish 3rd.
December Round Up
With all the data sets I follow updated to November we have a pretty clear view of where 2017 will finish. GISTEMP, BEST, and RSS will probably finish 2nd warmest, with only an outside chance of dropping to 3rd. NOAA, HadCRUT, and UAH will probably finish 3rd warmest, with only UAH having a small chance of finishing 4th.
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