Temperature Update - July 2018, UAH

Dr Roy Spencer has announced the latest monthly global temperature anomaly according to the UAH satellite data set. The anomaly for July was 0.32°C warmer than the 1981 - 2010 average. This is an increase of around 0.1°C over the June anomaly, and makes July the warmest anomaly of the year so far. This is the 4th warmest July on record, only beaten by the El Niño years of 1998, 2010 and 2016.

July was very slightly above the trend line, which shows overall temperature rise at 1.28°C / century. It also means the twelfth month moving average stopped falling for this month.

Predictions

With half the year already set and temperatures remaining very close to expected values, there was little change in the central prediction for 2018. This is now predicted to be 0.255 ± 0.074°C, compared with the prediction from June of 0.244 ± 0.091°C. This can be compared with the current average anomaly for the year of 0.233°C.

The most likely result is still for 2018 to be slightly cooler than 2015, making it the 6th warmest year in the UAH record. There is now around a 1 in 3 chance of 2018 finishing above 2015 for 5th place, a 1 in 2 chance of finishing in 6th place, and a 1 in 6 chance of finishing below 2002 for 7th or lower.

UAH 6.0

Rank	Year	Anomaly	Probability	Cumulative
1	2016	0.51	0.00%	0.00%
2	1998	0.48	0.00%	0.00%
3	2017	0.38	0.11%	0.11%
4	2010	0.34	1.38%	1.49%
5	2015	0.27	33.94%	35.43%
6	2002	0.22	49.64%	85.07%
7	2005	0.2	8.21%	93.29%
8	2003	0.19	3.25%	96.54%
9	2014	0.18	0.98%	97.52%
10	2007	0.16	1.84%	99.36%
11	2013	0.14	0.49%	99.85%
12	2001	0.12	0.12%	99.97%
13	2006	0.11	0.00%	99.98%
14	2009	0.1	0.02%	99.99%

Despite hot weather in many parts of the world the pattern from UAH at least continues to be pretty stable. So far my mid-range forecast has barely moved, with July being almost identical to the forecast from January.