Temperature Update July 2018, HadCRUT

According to the Met Office and Hadley Centre data set, HadCRUT4, the temperature for July 2018 was 0.591°C above the 1961-1990 average. This is slightly higher than the anomaly in June of 0.576°C, but still down on the warmest anomaly months of March and April. Overall the year remains pretty flat with only a tenth of a degree separating all months.

This places July 2018 as the 6th warmest July in the HadCRUT data set.

Taking all months into account, July was slightly below the trend since 1970.

The average anomaly for the first 7 months of 2018 is 0.583°C.

Predictions

The current prediction for 2018 is 0.600±0.081°C. Slightly down from last month's prediction of 0.604±0.093°C.

The most likely ranking for 2018 is 4th, between 2014 and 2017. There is an approximately two thirds chance of this, but it is a lot more likely that it will finish below 2014 and above 2017. There is less than a 3% chance of finishing in 3rd place and practically no chance of finishing higher than this. There is about a 30% chance of finishing below 4th place, in which case anything down to 8th is plausible, with a small chance still of dropping down as far as 12th.

HadCRUT4

Rank	Year	Anomaly	Probability	Cumulative
1	2016	0.8	0.00%	0.00%
2	2015	0.76	0.01%	0.01%
3	2017	0.68	2.93%	2.94%
4	2014	0.58	66.16%	69.10%
5	2010	0.56	14.55%	83.65%
6	2005	0.55	7.12%	90.76%
7	1998	0.54	2.21%	92.97%
8	2013	0.51	5.06%	98.03%
9	2003	0.51	0.68%	98.70%
10	2006	0.51	0.13%	98.84%
11	2009	0.51	0.04%	98.88%
12	2002	0.5	0.42%	99.30%
13	2007	0.49	0.22%	99.51%
14	2012	0.47	0.37%	99.88%
15	2004	0.45	0.10%	99.98%
16	2001	0.44	0.01%	99.99%
17	2011	0.42	0.01%	100.00%