According to Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) satellite data, the global anomaly for July 2018 was 0.631°C above the 1979-1998 average. This makes 2018 the third warmest July in the RSS record. The only years warmer were 2010 and 2016, both strong El Niño years.
The trend for all months since 1979 is 1.96°C / century. This July was slightly above the trend. The average over the last 12 months remains above the trend line as.
Predictions
My simple statistical prediction for the year, is that 2018 will be 0.535±0.081°C. This is slightly up on last month's prediction of 0.527±0.095°C. For comparison the actual average for the first 7 months is 0.514°C, so this will require the following months to warm up slightly compared with the start of the year.
On this basis there is now around a 75% chance that RSS will finish in 6th place, between 2014 and 2015. This is virtually unchanged from last months prediction, but the probability of finishing below 6th place has diminished, from around 1 in 30, to 1 in 100. This means there is now slightly more chance (~25%) of beating 2015, in which case 5th, 4th or 3rd are still possible.
| Rank | Year | Anomaly | Probability | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 0.76 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 2 | 2017 | 0.65 | 0.40% | 0.40% |
| 3 | 2010 | 0.6 | 6.79% | 7.19% |
| 4 | 1998 | 0.58 | 6.32% | 13.51% |
| 5 | 2015 | 0.56 | 9.92% | 23.43% |
| 6 | 2014 | 0.44 | 75.47% | 98.90% |
| 7 | 2005 | 0.44 | 0.15% | 99.05% |
| 8 | 2003 | 0.4 | 0.89% | 99.94% |
| 9 | 2013 | 0.39 | 0.02% | 99.96% |
| 10 | 2007 | 0.39 | 0.00% | 99.97% |
| 11 | 2002 | 0.38 | 0.01% | 99.97% |
| 12 | 2006 | 0.35 | 0.03% | 100.00% |
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