HadCRUT 4 posted a temperature anomaly of 0.561 °C for September, compared to the base period of 1961 - 1990. This is the 6th warmest September in the HadCRUT record.
There has been some deviation this month between surface data which have all shown September as cooler than the last few years, and satellite data that has shown a record September. Moreover, the two satellite data sets have both had temperatures increasing for the last two months, whereas surface data has shown temperatures decreasing.
I don't know if this portends anything, or if it is just illustrating the problem of just looking at individual months.
The year-to-date average HadCRUT anomaly is now 0.714°C compared to the August value of 0.733°C.
Predictions
The predicted value for 2017 based on data up to September is 0.706 ± 0.056°C, compared with the value from August of 0.718 ± 0.069°C.
This makes it all but certain that HadCRUT will see 2017 as being the 3rd warmest year on record. The slight possibility that HadCRUT might finish warmer than 2015 to snatch 2nd place has almost vanished - my model only gives it 2% and it will probably be less than that if the ENSO forecast was taken into account. At the same time it is virtually impossible for 2017 to finish below 2014 in 3rd place. (Without going into the figures, it would require the last 3 months of 2017 to be the coldest such period in the last 20 years, and a drop in temperature that would be unprecedented in the entire HadCRUT history for 2017 to end up cooler than 2014. Baring a major catastrophe, which is always possible given the state of the world, 2017 not finishing in 3rd place will make 2017 the most extraordinary year in the climatic record.)
| Rank | Year | Anomaly | Probability | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 0.8 | 0.10% | -1.08% |
| 2 | 2015 | 0.76 | 2.01% | -5.78% |
| 3 | 2014 | 0.58 | 97.89% | +6.87% |
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