Temperature Updates - Rounding Out August 2017

This will be a very brief update to finish of the data from August, for HadCRUT and BEST.

Both posted warm months, in both cases the 3rd warmest August on record. In fact both show the last 4 Augusts as the top 4 on record.

This has had little effect on the prediction for 2017, both unchanged to the nearest hundredth of a degree. The forecast for HadCRUT is 0.718 ± 0.069°C, and BEST is 0.872 ± 0.071°C.

The increasing confidence in these forecasts have tightened up the probabilities, with HadCRUT no being more than 90% likely to finish 3rd, and BEST more than 90% likely to finish 2nd.

HadCRUT4

Rank	Year	Anomaly	Probability	Change
1	2016	0.8	1.21%	-1.45%
2	2015	0.76	7.91%	-2.24%
3	2014	0.58	90.88%	+3.73%
4	2010	0.56	0.01%	-0.04%

BEST

Rank	Year	Anomaly	Probability	Change
1	2016	0.96	0.62%	-1.59%
2	2015	0.82	91.44%	+1.60%
3	2010	0.7	7.94%	-0.01%