The September data for RSS 4 has finally been updated, and it's another very hot month.
Temperatures
September was 0.84 °C above the base period of 1979 - 1998. This is the warmest September on record, 0.09 °C warmer than the previous record set in September 2016. 2016 was in turn 0.15 °C warmer than the previous record set in 2010.
The average anomaly for the year to date is now 0.623 °C, up from 0.596 °C in August.
Predictions
My statistical projection is now that the final average for 2017 will be 0.603 ± 0.06 °C, compared with the forecast based on data up to August of 0.586 ± 0.071 °C.
The increase in the forecast has made it more likely that RSS 4 will have its second warmest year in 2017, but there is still a reasonable chance that it could drop below 1998 to finish 3rd, and as there are several years all with similar temperatures to 1998 this could drop further down the rankings.
| Rank | Year | Anomaly | Probability | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 0.74 | 0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2 | 1998 | 0.58 | 77.53% | +21.50% |
| 3 | 2010 | 0.56 | 14.05% | -5.36% |
| 4 | 2015 | 0.54 | 6.77% | -9.03% |
| 5 | 2005 | 0.42 | 1.65% | -7.11% |
It will be interesting to see how much of an impact any La Niña will have on these forecasts.
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